It’s a sad truth that spring shows tend to dominate the conversation around Tony nomination time (though, to be fair, the three recent winners Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen, The Band’s Visit all opened in the fall). Below, the BroadwayBox team goes category-by-category filling in what that one fall slot would have to be (IMHO).

Best Musical:  Moulin Rouge

Best Play:  Slave Play

Best Revival: Betrayal

Best Leading Actress in a Musical: Adrienne Warren, Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Aaron Tveit, Moulin Rouge

Best Leading Actor in a Play: Andrew Burnap, The Inheritance*

Best Leading Actress in a Play: Mary-Louise Parker, The Sound Inside

Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Sahr Ngaujah, Moulin Rouge

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Lauren Patten, Jagged Little Pill

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Ato Blankson-Wood, Slave Play

Best Featured Actress in a Play: Lois Smith, The Inheritance

Best Score: Rob Rokicki, The Lightning Thief

Best Book: Diablo Cody, Jagged Little Pill

Best Director of a Musical:  Alex Timbers, Moulin Rouge

Best Director of a Play:  Stephen Daldry, The Inheritance

Best Choreography:  Sonya Tayeh, Moulin Rouge

Best Orchestrations: Katie Kresek, Charlie Rosen and Matt Stine, Moulin Rouge

* for categories we think they would be submitted for. Also, West Side Story doesn’t open until 2020 so was not in consideration.